Chuck Yates Needs A Job

0:21 All right, everybody with the hurricane hitting and being front page story on everything we had to get the official climate weather expert of Chuck Hates needs a job Chris Marks to come back on the

0:33 podcast and explain to us what's happening Chris, welcome back on and thanks for coming. It's great to be here to talk about the invite. So I'm sure you and I are going to be a little bit snarky

0:46 and maybe make fun of some some climate stuff on this. But let's start off with climates this is a really big tragedy that's happened a lot of stuff on this, but let's start off with this is a

0:52 really big tragedy that's happened a lot of lives lives have have been been lost lost and and affected affected in in a a really really bad bad way way.. So So thoughts thoughts and and prayers

1:00 prayers go go out out to to all all the the folks folks of of the the southeast Southeast that that have have been been affected affected by by Halloween Halloween,. So so..

1:08 Yeah Yeah,, I I just just heard heard that that the the death death toll toll was is kind of a kind of a 200 200.. So So I think I think this this is is the the deadliest deadliest hurricane

1:13 hurricane we've we've had had in in the the United United States States since since Hurricane Hurricane Katrina Katrina. And And that that was was, you know, 19 years ago. So very unfortunate

1:22 tragedy that's unfolded in the Carolinas. Yeah 19, years ago, so very unfortunate tragedy that's unfolded in the Carolinas. Yeah, so Chris, what happened? 'Cause so Chris, what happened?

1:29 'Cause I I mean mean,, I I was was sitting sitting there there and and somebody somebody said said,, Hey Hey, a, a hurricane's hurricane's gonna gonna hit hit.. And And I I didn't didn't hear

1:36 hear anything anything about about it it.. And And usually usually we we hear hear about about things things forming forming out out in in the the Gulf Gulf and and intensifying intensifying. This.

1:42 This just just seemed seemed to to pop pop out out of of nowhere nowhere Well Well,, there there was was an an area area of of - of just just a a tropical tropical disturbance disturbance that that

1:50 was expected. They had their eye on it for several days. We're talking over five days out was. expected, you know, they're the ionic several days. We're talking over five days out And. And this

1:56 this thing thing was was expected expected.. You You know know,, actually actually a a week week before before this this entire entire event event,, we we were ended up up in in the the Weather

2:00 Weather Center Center at at my my university university,, my my meteorology meteorology majors majors and and,, you you know know,, meteorologists meteorologists that that are are on on staff

2:06 staff at at our our university university. We. We were were all all talking talking about about the the potential potential for for a a hurricane hurricane in in the the Gulf Gulf of of Mexico

2:11 Mexico that that week week. And And it it was was a, a we, we were were expected expected to to be be potentially potentially a a major major hurricane hurricane because because of of the the fact

2:19 fact that that the the Gulf golf is is, you know, obviously obviously very very warm warm,. as As it it always always is is this this time time of of the the year year., I I mean mean, it's,

2:24 all, even even though though it's it's warmer warmer than than average average,, it's it's warm warm enough enough in in the the Gulf Gulf of of Mexico Mexico every every year year to to,, for

2:29 for a a whole whole other other environmental environmental conditions conditions are are conducive conducive for for a a major major hurricane hurricane to to form form and and sustain sustain all

2:37 all the the way way up up to to landfall landfall.. So So there there was was a a tropical tropical disturbance disturbance that that, you know, formed formed, organized organized deep deep

2:43 conduction conduction, and and then then it it began began to to,, they were they were hurricane hurricane, and and then then obviously obviously it it made made land landfall. back on fall the

2:49 back on last year, a week ago last today,, and 1110PM. last third a week ago today, around 1110 pm. And And it it was was a a category category four four.. Now Now, a a lot lot of of people

2:60 people have have asked asked me me,, okay okay,, is is this this,, I I was was watching watching on on a a podcast podcast with with Daniel Daniel Horowitz Horowitz on on the the blaze blaze a a

3:06 couple couple of of days days ago ago.. He He asked asked whether whether or or not not it it was was intensified intensified, it was rapidly rapidly,, it it was was expected expected to to

3:12 intensify intensify the the rapidly replays as it it did did. A A lot lot of of people people said said it it just just kind kind of of,, it it wasn't wasn't,, they they weren't weren't

3:16 anticipating anticipating it it to to intensify intensify to to a a category category four four, but., but actually Actually, we we anticipated anticipated it to it intensify to intensify earlier

3:22 earlier than than it it did did.. There There's was actually actually a a dry dry air air,, a a bunch bunch of of dry dry air air in in the the golf golf that that was was in in training training

3:27 into into the the circulation circulation.. And And when when you you get get dry dry air air wrapped wrapped into into a a hurricane hurricane, circulation circulation,, a a lot lot of of dust

3:33 dust and and stuff stuff,, a a lot lot of of dry dry air air,, what what happens happens is is it it causes causes the the humidity to drop. And so when the humidity drops, what happens is the

3:38 droplets humidity to drop. And so when the humidity drops, what happens is the droplets evaporate evaporate because because they're they're no no longer longer in in a a saturated saturated

3:45 environment environment And and then then as as the the drop looks at that. droplets evaporate evaporate, evaporation evaporation's a of cooling cooling process process because because whatever

3:51 whatever a a liquid liquid water water droplet droplet to to evaporate evaporate, you you have have to to raise raise it, you have to raise its its temperature temperature. and And that that means

3:57 means it it has has to to take take heat heat out out of of the the air air.. So So it it causes causes the the air air to to,, around around it it, to to cool and cool. And cool cool air air is

4:03 is negatively negatively buoyant buoyant,. It's it's denser denser. so So it it sinks sinks and and it it forms forms down downdrafts droughts and and that that's suppresses the freshest convection

4:08 convection. so So it it disrupts disrupts the the organization organization in in the the intensification intensification of of a a hurricane hurricane.. So So had had it it actually actually

4:14 intensified intensified earlier earlier,, what's was was expected expected, it it probably probably would would have have been been, it and it could could have even have even been been a a high

4:18 high end end cat for cap or or cap cat five five at at landfall landfall versus versus the the cap, you know, category category four four with with 140 a hundred forty mile mile an an hour hour

4:25 winds winds and and then I'm almost so after sure nine thirty eight millibars um 938 millibars. But but to to wrap wrap up up my my point point here here, um the the analogy analogy or or the the um

4:36 about method the, dry dry air air thing thing, this this is is a a cool cool kind kind of of a a thought thought experiment experiment. So so obviously obviously when when you're you're when you're

4:41 taking taking a a shower shower, right right, you're you're you're all all your you're wet wet because because the the water's water's coming coming down down off off the the shower shower head head

4:45 and and um that but when when you you get get out out, you you start start to to get get really good. really cold cold that's that because that's because you're you're no no longer longer in in that

4:51 that saturated saturated environment environment and and so so the the droplets droplets on on your your skin skin begin begin to to evaporate evaporate and and then you you get get cold cold because

4:56 because it's it's an an event advantage because because it's it's evaporative evaporative cooling cooling. It it works works the the same same process process that that occurs occurs just just in in

5:01 the the atmosphere atmosphere on on a a much much larger larger scale scale that's that's what what causes causes that's that's why why dry dry air air actually actually cools cools the the

5:06 environment environment and and weakens weakens the the hurricane hurricane for as it for from an intensified intensified. so So had had it it not not done done that that uh leave it if if I i it

5:12 could could have have been been um worse worse for for Florida florida at at least least and than that it was was. Gotcha Gotcha,. and And so so. the The hurricane hurricane made made land

5:20 landfall fall.. Normally Normally, when we we when we talk talk hurricanes hurricanes, we we talk talk Texas Texas,, Louisiana Louisiana,, Florida Florida., every Every once once in in a a

5:30 while while we we talk talk kind kind of of North North Carolina Carolina.. We We rarely rarely talk talk Tennessee Tennessee when when we we talk talk about about hurricanes hurricanes.. What

5:37 What caused caused the the intensity intensity to to be be maintained maintained, I I guess guess, as as it it moved moved inward inward?. Or Or is is that that even even a a correct correct

5:46 question question?? Well Well, Yeah yeah,, and and this this is is another another thing thing that that people people are have brought brought up up.. Anytime Anytime that that you you have

5:52 have,, CNN CNN,, not not CNN CNN,, CBS CBS News News,, other other anchor anchor,, Major Major Garrett Garrett, has Heshirana-Headlawn she ran a headline the the other other night night,

5:59 talking talking about about how how hurricanes hurricanes are are,, and and he he said said,, pretty pretty much much word word for for word word,, he he said said that that hurricanes

6:04 hurricanes are are no no longer longer landfalling landfalling events events only only.. They They cause cause, they cause damage damage hundreds hundreds upon upon hundreds hundreds of of miles

6:10 miles from from the years years of of a a point point of of landfall landfall.. That's That's obviously obviously not not true true.. We've We've seen seen this this happen happen many many times

6:15 times before before.. Hurricane Hurricane Agnes Agnes in in 1972 1972., Hurricane Camille, 1969 1969,, and and Hurricane Hurricane Diane Diane,, 1955 1955.. We've We've even even seen seen

6:23 this this with with tropical tropical storms storms.. This This is is not not the the first first time time this this has has happened happened.. It's It's actually actually not not the the first

6:28 first time time this this happened happened for for North North Carolina Carolina,, which let's all I'll get get into into that that a a little little bit bit later later. We'll when we move move

6:32 pivot into to that that topic topic.. But But in anytime each time that that you you have have a a tropical tropical moisture moisture from from a a hurricane hurricane and and it it makes makes

6:39 landfall landfall and and it it interacts interacts with with mid-latitude mid-latitude dynamics dynamics, such such as as like like an an upper upper level level trough trough,. Those those lower

6:47 lower pressure pressure areas areas are and made they begin begin to to face face together together and and avoid adjoin. What, what happens happens is is, is it goes boom. it It goes boom, it

6:55 really really intensifies intensifies in in that that baroclinically baroclinically driven driven environment environment,, which which is is sharp sharp temperature temperature contrast contrast..

7:00 And And when when you you have have where where are are graphics graphics involved involved,, which which is is when when you you have have like like a a mountain mountain range range and and

7:05 hurricanes hurricanes in in the the Northern Northern Hemisphere Hemisphere, they, they spin spin

7:09 counterclockwise counterclockwise,, which which I I guess guess from from this this point point of of views views like like that that.. They They spin spin counterclockwise counterclockwise, They

7:16 They spin spend cycloneically cycloneically in in the the Northern Northern Hemisphere Hemisphere.. So So when we you were were talking talking about about the the geographical geographical location

7:22 location,, you you think think about about North North Carolina Carolina being being down down here here, and and then then our our Florida Florida being being down down here here and and the the

7:28 Carolina's Carolina's up up here here.. So So the the hurricane hurricane,, the the rain rain bands bands on on the the outer outer part part of of the the circulation circulation,, as as it's

7:33 it's coming coming up up,, the the circulation circulation of, the the rain rain bands bands and and the the eyeball eyeball and and all all the the moisture moisture is is being being forced

7:39 forced, these, these parcels parcels of are air being being forced forced up up and and over over the the mountain mountain. And And as as it it does does so so, the, the air air becomes becomes

7:45 super saturated supersaturated.. So So there's this excess excess water water vapor vapor, can't - that that can't can't happen happen really really., So so it's it's forced forced to to condense

7:50 condense into into liquid liquid water water droplets droplets, and and it it forms forms clouds clouds, and and therefore therefore precipitation precipitation once it gets gets heavy heavy enough

7:57 enough, and and there's there's other other more more complex complex processes processes that that are are involved involved there there in in the the cloud cloud physics visits., But but any any

8:02 type type of of the the orographic orographic precipitation precipitation on on the the windward windward,, in in this this case case, the, the eastern eastern side side of of the the Appalachians

8:07 Appalachians,, the the blue blue ridge ridge there there, smoking smoking all all those those mountain mountain range range there there.. What What happens happens is is you you get get the the

8:13 precipitation precipitation is is heavy heavy on on the the windward windward side side So So we we saw saw like, we saw 15 15 to to 20 20-plus. plus the inches inches of are very rain, up up to to

8:18 22 22 inches inches of of rain rain, within within just just a a two-day two-day time time period period on on Friday Friday and and Saturday Saturday.. And And over over Western Western North

8:29 North Carolina Carolina, in and South South Carolina Carolina,, of of course course,, it's it's origin origin.. But But anyway, when when you you go go to to the the leeward leeward side side

8:35 of of the the mountains mountains of, the the Western Western portion portion, over over in in like Tennessee Tennessee,, we we didn't didn't see see as as much much rainfall rainfall. because

8:40 Because the the air air starts starts to to downslope downslope the the mountain mountain,. it It dries dries up up to 80 for of the adiabatic that compression compression. So So this this is is

8:47 all all just just - explained explained by by synoptic synoptic meteorology meteorology.. This This is is all all explained explained by by the the just the basic basic physics physics of of the the

8:54 atmosphere atmosphere.. This This has has nothing nothing really really to to do do with with climate climate change change.. And And they they talk talk about about,, I mean again,, and this

9:00 this happened happened with with Hurricane Hurricane Agnes Agnes in in 1972 1972.. We We saw saw it it happen happen all all the the way way up up.. It It wasn't wasn't North North Carolina

9:06 Carolina that that was was impacted impacted as as much much,, but but it it was was more more so so Virginia Virginia,, Maryland Maryland, and, and Pennsylvania Pennsylvania.. There There

9:10 were was, I I think think, 12 12 feet feet of of flood flood water water in in parts parts of of Harrisburg Harrisburg,, Pennsylvania Pennsylvania, from Hurricane Hurricane Agnes Agnes in in 1972

9:14 1972.

9:16 and And then then Hurricane Hurricane Camille Camille in in 1969 1969 calls calls a a lot lot of of damage damage.. Diane Diane,, 1955 1955,, those those are are just just some some examples

9:21 examples off off the the top top of of my my head head.. So So this this isn't isn't,, these these kinds kinds of of things things happen happen.. And And any any time time you you get get

9:27 mid-latitude mid-latitude,, these these troughs troughs come come down down out out of of Canada Canada,, they they swing swing into into the the United United States States.. These These

9:33 troughs troughs interact interact with with hurricanes hurricanes,, tropical tropical moisture moisture,, it's it's happened happened to it, to it, it it just just explodes explodes and and it

9:39 it is is able able to to create create a a really really destructive destructive setup setup So So a a lot lot of of times times it it happens happens,,

9:47 it it can can happen happen unexpectedly unexpectedly., although although this this was was kind kind of of anticipated anticipated,, you know within, within a a couple couple of of days days out

9:52 out, we, we were were like like, okay, okay,, this this is is gonna going to be be catastrophic catastrophic flooding flooding.. But But this, you know, this this magnitude magnitude of of

9:59 flooding flooding was was not not expected expected a a week week out out.. The The intensity intensity of of the the hurricane hurricane was was well well forecast forecast in in landfall landfall,,

10:04 and and the the National National Hurricane Hurricane Center Center did did a a great great job job of with that that.. Leading Leading up to, up to even the, even three three,, four four,,

10:10 five five days days out out,, we weren't weren't really really expecting expecting this this magnitude magnitude of of flooding flooding. And And so so when when you you try try and and warm warn

10:15 people people., you You know know,, you you only only give give them them a a couple couple of of days days to to notice notice, it's it's better better than than nothing nothing,, but but some

10:21 some people people are are not not going going to to take take that that advice advice.. You You can't can't evacuate evacuate everybody everybody.. If If some some people people are are just just

10:24 going going to to be be stubborn stubborn,, unfortunately unfortunately,, it it has has a a big big loss loss of of life life. This. This is is why why we we need need to to really really

10:29 improve improve our our numerical numerical weather weather prediction prediction models models in in the the future future to to be be able able to to work work and and have have better better lead

10:34 meet times times.. But But hats hats off off to to the the National natural Weather weather Service service Meteorologist meteorologist at at Greenville Greenville Spartanburg Spartanburg, they.

10:39 They were were talking talking about about flooding flooding potential potential and and heavy heavy rain rain up up to to five five days days out out in in advance advance. And And they they had had

10:45 to to incrementally incrementally increase increase that that their their strident strident message. messaging doing about about the the danger danger., but But again again,, forecasting

10:51 forecasting this this magnitude magnitude of of flooding flooding that that far far out out., you You can't can't do do that that. You. You can't can't go go big big and and say say,, Hey Hey,,

10:56 a a week week from from now now, there's, it's going going to to be be a a massive massive flood flood that that comes comes through through your your house house,, because because if if that that

11:01 doesn't doesn't happen happen,, you you know know, a, a big big forecast forecast bust bust. And. And people people are are not not going going to to take take you you seriously seriously as as

11:05 a a meteorologist meteorologist, as, as a a forecaster forecaster in in the the future future when, when you you say say something something like like this this happens happens again again. So So

11:12 it's it's kind kind of of an an iffy hippie situation situation,, it's a a very very tough tough situation situation.. And meteorologists meteorologists that that are are involved involved in in

11:17 forecasting forecasting these these events events, so, hats so off hats to off to them them in in respect respect for for working working around around the the clock clock to to try try and and do

11:23 do their their best best to to give give horny warning and and save save lives lives.. Yeah Yeah,, we we saw saw that that in in Houston Houston because because we we saw saw the the devastation

11:30 devastation with with Katrina Katrina. and And then then I I believe believe it was six weeks it was six weeks later later, we, we had had Rita Rita that that hit hit and and everybody everybody

11:38 evacuated evacuated Houston Houston. and And it it turned turned out out it it didn't didn't even even hit hit Houston Houston.. I I think think it it hit hit kind kind of of more more like like

11:44 Charles Charles,, Louisiana Louisiana,, Texas Texas border border.. And And so so, So,, but but then then again again,, everybody everybody had had seen seen Katrina Katrina and and was was

11:52 scared scared and. And so so we we all all went went to to Fort Fort Worth Worth for for the the, for the thing thing.. So So circling circling back back to to climate climate change change,

11:60 'cause, because I I think think that that was was even even a a question question in in the the vice vice presidential presidential debate debate,. you know Look, look at at the the hurricane

12:04 hurricane happening happening.. This This is is evidence evidence of, of of climate climate change change.. I I don't don't want wanna to steal steal your your thunder thunder 'cause because

12:11 you're you're the the one one that that actually actually has has pulled pulled the the data data and and I've I've learned learned it it from from reading reading from from you you But, it doesn't

12:17 It doesn't look look like like when when you you look look through through the the data data,, right right?, That that hurricane hurricane,, hurricane hurricane intensity intensity is is

12:22 anywhere anywhere correlated correlated to to CO2 CO2 levels levels..

12:27 Is Is that that right right? It's? No, it's not not.. Yes Yes,, correct correct.. It It actually actually has has some some stats stats here here,. you know, At the at the vice vice

12:34 presidential presidential debate debate,, which which was was funny funny because, 'cause they they brought brought up up this this question question.. And And this this is is the the climate

12:38 climate change change question question.. Just Just right right off off of of that that is is always always a a question question that that Republicans Republicans don't don't tend tend to to do do

12:44 as as well well even Even though though the the Democratic Democratic candidate candidate is is, there. they're the I I believe believe in in science science and and they they always always echo

12:50 echo this this messaging messaging that that we we have have 10 10 years years left left to to say say the the planet planet or or climate climate change changes is to a crisis crisis. Even Even

12:56 though though that's that's obviously not not really as that's obviously not accurate accurate, They tend they they tend tend to to win win that that question question over over because because they

13:01 they don't don't really really avoid avoid answering answering the the question question.. They They actually actually talk talk about about, you You know know,, this this is is what what science

13:06 science has has stated stated.. That's That's not not really really what what scientists scientists say say. They they exaggerate exaggerate everything everything. but But the The republican

13:12 Republican candidate candidate always kind of loses on it because they focus more on energy and that's a that's an important topic But it's it's related to kind of loses on it because they focus more

13:18 on energy. And that's an important topic, and it's related to climate climate,, but but they don't they they kind kind of of just just have evade made, you you know know, choice choice of all

13:21 all Trump Trump is is like like, I want I I want want clean clean air air.. I I want want clean clean water water.

13:26 And And, you you know know, and and obviously obviously that's that's important important so. I I agree agree with with them them, But but that's that's kind kind of of evading evading the the

13:31 climate climate question question. And And this this is is why why the the Trump Trump campaign campaign and and Vance and advanced and they the need need to to be be better better equipped equipped

13:36 with with the the facts facts and and the the stats stats About about, you you know know,, they they can can go go back back at at the the moderators moderate and and say say, Hey hey,, you you

13:41 know know, the The number number of hurricanesmaking the number of of hurricanes making the matter number of major major hurricanesmaking hurricanes making landfall landfall in in the United the

13:45 United Stateshas States has dropped dropped by by about about 50 50 since the 1930s since the 19th.. 30. Nobody Nobody knows knows that that statistic statistic,, but but that that is is a a fact,

13:51 if you look at the fact, if you look at the natural National Hurricane hurricane Center center data data..

13:55 But But in in the the case case of of Hurricane Hurricane Helene Helene,, it it tied tied for for the the 21st 21st most most intense intense hurricane hurricane landfall landfall with with

14:00 Hurricane Hurricane Haze Haze,, by by minimum minimum, central central pressure pressure,, 'cause because lower lower the the pressure pressure stronger stronger the the storm storm, generally

14:04 generally.. Most Most of of the the pressure pressure are gradient gradient,, but but we we don't don't really really calculate calculate that. that. So So we we just just kind kind of of go go

14:11 by by minimum minimum pressure pressure,. But They it tied tied with with Hurricane Hurricane Hazel Hazel in in 1954 1954,, which which struck struck near near Myrtle Myrtle Beach Beach as as a a

14:17 21st 21st for for most most intense intense hurricanes hurricanes struck struck the the United United States States.. So So it's it's obviously obviously since since,, you you know know, since,

14:22 since 1851 1851, when when reliable reliable record record-keeping keeping began began,, we've we've had had 308 308 hurricanes hurricanes make make landfall landfall in in the the United United

14:29 States States,, 95 95 major major hurricanes hurricanes.. But But it it was was,, you you know know,, so so it's it's up up there there,, you you know know,, in in the the upper upper,,

14:37 you you know know,, hurricanes hurricanes in in the the top top 30 30,, but but it it was was another not a top top,, not not even even a a top top 20 20 landfall landfall,. we've We've had

14:43 had far far more more intense intense hurricanes hurricanes.. Now Now,, if if you you look look at at the the number number of of hurricane hurricane Florida Florida,, for for example example,,

14:47 has has been been hit hit by by 110 110 hurricanes hurricanes since since 1851 1851,, 39 39 major major hurricanes hurricanes.. And And her her Florida Florida was was hit hit by by 12 12

14:54 hurricanes hurricanes alone alone in in the the 1870s 1870s,, just just in in that that 10 10 year year period period,, then hit they hit by by 12 12 hurricanes hurricanes.. In In the the 1880s

14:59 1880s and and 1940s 1940s,, Florida Florida was was hit hit by by 10 10 hurricanes hurricanes in in each each of of those those decades decades.. And And Florida Florida was was hit hit by by

15:06 eight eight major major hurricanes hurricanes in in the the 1940s 1940s and and 2000s 2000s. So, so there's there's the the most most major major hurricanes hurricanes in in a a decade decade..

15:12 And And her her Florida Florida also also,, people people don't don't realize realize this this,, but but Florida Florida went went almost almost 11 11 years years, but that without is a single

15:17 single major major hurricane hurricane,, actually actually, without without a a single single hurricane hurricane strike strike.. It's It's been been Hurricane Hurricane Wilma Wilma in 2005 in in

15:23 Hermine in 2005 2016 in Hermine. in 2016. The The United United States States went went almost almost 11 11 years years or without without a a single single major major hurricane hurricane strike

15:30 strike between between again again Wilma Wilma and and Harvey Harvey in in 2017 2017.. There There was was an the longest longest periods period on on record record without without a a major major

15:39 hurricane hurricane strike strike getting in Florida Florida without without a a single single hurricane hurricane strike strike in At all all,, which which is is a a very very impressive impressive

15:44 going going back back in in the the 175 175 years years of of data data that that we we have have.. If If you you let you look at The the number number of of hurricanes hurricanes making making

15:49 landfall landfall the the United United States States by by year year,, they're they're slightly slightly down down.. The number Remember of major major hurricanes hurricanes,, there's there's

15:53 no no trend trend at at all all.. In In 1886 1886,, there there were were six six hurricanes hurricanes that that made made landfall landfall in in the the United United States States alone alone..

16:00 This This was was tied tied in in 2004 or 2004 '05 or five and, and I I believe believe 1985 1985 if, if I I recall recall correctly correctly., This this was was a a hurricane hurricane,, six

16:07 6-6, six in in one one season season struck struck the the United United States States.

16:11 You know, so So it's it's obviously obviously, there's this isn't there's not not an an increase increase in in trend trend Globally globally,. there's There's no no increase increase in in number

16:16 number of of hurricanes hurricanes actually actually going going down down. 2021 2021., We we had had the the lowest lowest number number of of hurricanes hurricanes globally globally in in the the

16:22 satellite satellite records records, reliable reliable records records going going back back to to 1980 1980 satellite satellite record record going going back back to to 1966 1966. record Record

16:28 lowest lowest hurricane hurricane count count on on record record in in 2021 2021. If If you you look look at at the the number number of of major major hurricanes hurricanes,, there's there's no

16:35 no trend trend there there,. they're They're not not going going up up or or down down.. You You can can see see that that that was wasn't concluded concluded in in the the studies studies,. I'm

16:42 not not signed so on not all all 2019 2019, and and clots clocks back back in in all all 2022 2022 public public to to geophysical geophysical research research letters letters, not not set so not

16:47 at all all 2019 2019. being being published published in in the the American American Meteorological Meteorological Society Society journals journals. So So there's there's really really no no trend

16:54 trend in in hurricanes hurricanes. You. You could could look look at at the rapid, well the, the rapid rapid intensification intensification event events,. And and while while there's there's

16:59 been been an an increase increase in in rapid rapid intensification intensification events events in in the the Atlantic Atlantic since since 1995 1995,, which which is would known known to to be be

17:04 due due to to multi-decadal multi-decadal variability variability,, which which is the the Atlantic Atlantic multi-decadal multi-decadal oscillation oscillation, and entering during its its

17:08 positive positive phase phase that that year year,. and also the North Indian Indian Ocean Ocean,, which which we we don't don't really really know know why why that that is is.. Actually

17:14 Actually,, it's it's gone going down down in in the the entire entire Pacific Pacific phase phase in in Northwest Northwest,, Northeast Northeast,, and and South South Pacific Pacific,, and

17:20 and in in the the South South Indian Indian Ocean Ocean.. So So overall overall,, globally globally,, there's there's really really no no trend trend in in rapid rapid intensification

17:24 intensification events events,, which which occurs occurs when when atropical atropical cyclones cyclones,, maximum maximum sustained sustained wind wind speed speed increases increases by by at

17:30 at least least 30 30 knots knots or or 35 35 miles miles an an hour hour within within at at least least 24 24 hours hours.. So So there's there's no no trend trend globally globally in in that that,,

17:36 which which is is also also concluded concluded in in several several studies studies. going Going back back to to 2003 2003,, obviously obviously, that's that's 21 21 years years old old now now,,

17:43 but but even even it it was was recently recently concluded concluded in in the the class class back back in in all 2022 2022.. And Dr. Klotzbach Dr himself. Klosbeck himself actually actually

17:50 sent sent me me a a spreadsheet spreadsheet with with updated updated data data from from that that study study up up through through last last year year., And and again again,, since since 1990

17:55 1990,, since since 1980 1980,, there there is is no no trend trend in in rapid rapid intensification intensification events events.. So So hurricanes hurricanes aren't aren't getting getting

18:00 stronger stronger.. We're We're not not saying saying more more hurricanes hurricanes.. We're We're not not saying saying more more frequent frequent landfalls landfalls.. We're We're not not

18:04 saying saying more more frequent frequent major major hurricanes hurricanes. It's It's just just kind kind of of just steady steady,, a lot, even even in in spite spite of of global global warmth

18:09 warmth and And But I I haven't haven't studied studied it it to to the the nth nth degree degree like like you you have have,, but but my my understanding understanding is is tornado tornado data

18:18 data is is basically basically the the same same thing thing.. Yes Yes,. that's That's correct correct.. Yeah Yeah, and. actually Actually, a the violent violent tornado tornadoes is rated

18:24 rated EF EF,, strong strong to to violent violence when tornadoes it is rated rated EF3 EF3 or or F3 F3 plus plus have have declined declined by by 50 50,, about about

18:33 45 45 to to 50 50 since since 1954 1954,, which which is is when when near near real real-time time observation observation began began in in the the storm storm prediction prediction center center

18:38 database database of of Noah's NOAA's website website Now Now,, the the disclaimer that disclaimer that I I should should put put with with that that data data though though is is that that tornado

18:45 tornado ratings ratings were were We're typically simply,, toward tornadoes us, were we're typically typically rated rated. in inaccurately accurately at and a a little little too too high high,

18:50 there's, there's a high bias back in the early record, 1950s a high bias back and in the 60s early record, 1950s. It and 60s. wasn't Wasn't until until the the 1970s 1970s,, 1980s 1980s, that

18:58 that we we really really had had a a consistent consistent kind kind of of like like,, okay okay,, these these,, they're they're basically basically rated rated on on how how much much damage

19:03 damage,, not on their damage which, which is is related related to to wind wind speed speed,, but but it's it's related related to to,, you you know know,, not not, not. how much much

19:10 damage damage occurred occurred because because there's there's more more stuff stuff to to destroy destroy now now than than there there was in 1954 were than there was in 1954. But But you you look

19:17 look at at,, you you know know,, say say there there was was a a barn barn that that got got destroyed destroyed by by a a tornado tornado.. Okay Okay,, how how much much of of the the barn

19:22 barn was was destroyed destroyed?? How How bad bad is is the the damage damage?? Even Even just just from from one one building building,, you you can can kind kind of of estimate estimate what

19:27 what the the winds winds were were,, what what the the wet intensity intensity was was,, or or the the amount amount of of tree tree damage damage.. So So that's that's kind kind of of how how

19:34 they're they're rated rated basically basically on on wind wind.. If It'd you be better better to have have wind wind speed speed data data,, but but we we don't don't have have a a very very long

19:38 long record record of of that that.. So So the the E E at at the the day day, the, they're basing basing it it off off the the enhanced enhanced fajita fajita scale scale,, or or yes yes scale

19:44 scale, is is much much better better,, much much more more accurate accurate in in terms. terms of a in terms of a long-term long-term comprehensive comprehensive analysis analysis.. And And the

19:56 bigger, the the stronger stronger,, the the more more violent violent tornadoes tornadoes are are less less easily easily missed missed,, because because if if you you look look at at the the

19:60 total total number number of of tornadoes tornadoes,, they they go go all all the the way way up up through through about about 1991-92 1991., 92. And And around around the the early early 90s

20:07 '90s is is when when we we had had the the next next rad rad radar radar, the, the WS WS., Ws WS, the the Ws WS, or are 88 88, the the radar radar come come online online and and begin begin an

20:16 an operational operational use use in in early early 90s '90s And And since since then then, the the actual actual EF EF 0s 0s, 1s 1s, 2s 2s, 3s 3s, 4s 4s, and and 5s have 5s have remained

20:22 remained steady steady. There's There's actually actually no no trend trend, but but because because of urban because of of rural rural population population growth growth, everybody everybody

20:28 started started having having cell cell phone phone cameras cameras and and stuff stuff, Or or cameras cameras., I I guess guess, in in the the 90s '90s., they They didn't didn't have have

20:32 iPhones iPhones, obviously obviously,. but But More more people people spy spy on on tornadoes tornadoes, more more storm storm reports reports.. So So the the number number of of tornadoes

20:37 tornadoes, the you you include include the the weaker weaker ones ones, EF EF 0s 0s and and 1s 1s, they They increase increased like like this this, then and they they start start to to level

20:43 level up up. So So, and and those those weaker weaker ones ones don't don't really really last last very very long long, and they're very easily missed missed. They They were were actually

20:49 actually very very easily easily missed missed back back in in the the day day, kind kind of of like like hurricanes hurricanes that that never never passed passed by by ships ships, unfortunate

20:54 unfortunate ships ships, or or mid mid-landfall landfall in and the that, you you know know, 1800s 1800s or or even even in in the the 1930s 1930s. That's the The herd herders you don't don't mean

21:01 may not that have to to see see they they weren't weren't counted counted because because nobody nobody knew knew that that they they were were there there. It's a But the more more stronger stronger

21:06 and and violent violent tornadoes tornadoes are are less less easily easily missed missed because because they they kind kind of of calls cause more more damage damage And and they they tend tend to

21:10 to be be more more,, today today,, have have longer longer time time on on the the ground ground,, causing causing damage damage.. So So they're they're not not as as easily easily missed

21:17 missed.. And And that's that's why why they've they've actually actually gone gone down down.. But But even even if if,, again again,, keep keep in in mind mind that that they they were were

21:21 rated rated higher higher back back in in the the day day and and the the surveys surveys,, even even since since the the 1970s 1970s,, 1980s 1980s,, if if you you look look at at the the

21:27 stronger stronger violence violence,, what what it it is is,, there's there's no no trend trend in in that that.. It's It's just just kind kind of of flat flat.. We We have have only only that

21:31 that years years in in 1974 1974 and and 2011 2011 in in particular particular. Other Other than than that that,, it's it's just just kind kind of of just just, you know, year your to year

21:38 variability variability with with no no clear clear trend trend. I I will will push push back back on on you you slightly slightly on on Vance's Vance's answer answer and on the the debate debate,

21:47 and and, you know I'm, I'm a a libertarian libertarian. And, so so I I always always say say, I I think think they're they're nuts nuts on on both both sides sides, you, know Republicans,

21:52 Republicans and and Democrats Democrats.. But But, you know, the the answer answer he he gave gave,, I I think think if if you you go go back back and and say say,, Well well,, the the data

22:00 data doesn't doesn't show show it it,, liberals liberals will will never never check check data data.. I mean I mean,, just just my my story story about about liberalism liberalism is is my my

22:08 dad dad had had a a heart heart attack attack in in San San Francisco Francisco 21 21 years years ago ago.. And And this this lady lady came came up up to to my my mom mom and and said said,,

22:15 aren't aren't you you glad glad that that heart heart attack attack happened happened in in San San Francisco Francisco, where where you you could could get get really really good good medical

22:20 medical care care, as as opposed opposed to to being being back back in in Texas Texas.. And And my my mom's mom's just just Houston Houston,, Texas Texas,, the the home home of of DeBakey

22:28 DaBakey and and Cooley Cooley who who pioneered pioneered all all the the heart heart transplants transplants.. There's There's more more culinary culinary,, I I mean mean,, a a culinary

22:34 culinary, that's that's horrible horrible.. There's There's more more cardiovascular cardiovascular talent talent in in Houston Houston,, Texas Texas than than any any other other place place on

22:42 on the the planet planet.. But But, you you know know,, this of this, this this poor poor, dear dear, sweet sweet lady lady from from San San Francisco Francisco was is just just convinced

22:48 convinced all all the the Hickson Hickson, Texas, Texas didn't didn't know know anything anything about about medicine medicine.. So So I I don't don't think think you you could could get get them

22:53 them to to accept accept the the premise premise that that go go look look at at the the data data.. That's That's actually actually not not true true.. I I like like the the way way he he turned

22:59 turned it it.. Oh Oh,, well well,, if if that's that's the the case case,, then then we we should should clearly clearly be be manufacturing manufacturing everything everything in in the the

23:04 United United States States 'cause because we we have have the the cleanest cleanest energy energy on on the the planet planet.. And And we we do do when when you you look look at at methane methane

23:09 emissions emissions and and stuff stuff.. So So I I actually actually thought thought he he was was pretty pretty effective effective on on how how he he handled handled it it,, even even though

23:15 though to to your your point point,, the the underlying underlying sciences sciences,, there's there's no no there's no R R squared squared between between hurricanes hurricanes and and CO2 CO2..

23:24 Yeah Yeah,, I I agree agree I.. mean, I I think think his his answer answer, at, at least least on the on the energy energy front front of of it it, was was great great. I. I mean mean, he,

23:29 actually actually he advocated advocated for for more more nuclear nuclear powerwits power., which I I was was actually actually really really,, really really impressed impressed with with,

23:34 because because it's it's nice nice to to see see conservatives conservatives and and Republicans Republicans actually actually start start to to embrace embrace nuclear nuclear power power,, which

23:38 which Democrats Democrats would would embrace embrace nuclear nuclear power power and and have have some some bipartisanship bipartisanship on on that that and and kind kind of of jumpstart jumpstart

23:45 those operations. My point those was operations.

23:48 My point was that Now, now, obviously obviously,, yeah yeah,, you're you're right right,. liberals Liberals don't don't,, the the last last doesn't doesn't really really check check the the

23:52 data data on on a a lot lot of of things things,. they They just just make make claims claims about about things things that that aren't aren't true true.. I I just just find find with with the

23:57 the climate climate change change question question,, when when it's it's asked asked,, a a lot lot of of times times Trump Trump and advanced Vance, kind kind of of they they kind kind of of

24:02 evade evade, my my point point was was more more so still on on the the climate climate part part of of it it, is is that that they they kind kind of of evade evade answering answering like like,,

24:08 okay okay, is, is climate climate change change happening happening?? Is Is it it a hoax hoax?? Is it, you know, Is is it it real real?? You know, I I wish wish that that they they would

24:13 would not not evade evade that that as as much much,, especially especially Trump Trump. But But

24:19 in in the the Democrats Democrats,, again again,, they they obviously obviously exaggerate exaggerate the the hell hell out out of of everything every. And it's hell out of everything And it's

24:24 just just anti-science anti-science nonsense nonsense too too,, but but they they at at least least directly directly addressed addressed the the question question that that was was answered

24:29 answered in in that that regard regard.. Other Other issues issues they they obeyed obeyed on on,, especially especially the the border border of of the the economy economy,, but but I'm I'm not

24:33 not gonna going to get get into into that that.. But But it was it was nice nice to to see see Vance Vance embrace embrace nuclear nuclear on on that that point point.. So So I I think think that

24:40 he handled it that he handled it better better than than Trump Trump has has as as far far as as the the question question goes goes. I. I just just wish wish that that somebody somebody on on their

24:46 their campaign campaign could inform them on on the the state state of of the the climate climate science science in in an an unbiased unbiased manner manner, the the way way that that I'm I'm doing

24:53 doing.. I I can can give give them them stats stats so so that that when the. when when. Dana Dana Bash Bash, or or whoever whoever asks asks him him the the question question,, they they can

24:58 can say say,, Well Well,, actually actually, hurricanes hurricanes have have decreased decreased,, major major hurricane hurricane, they, they have have also caused a decreased decrease by by

25:02 50 50,, because because Hattie Hattie had had that that statistic statistic., Boom boom,. Kamala Kamala would would have have had had,, or or Tim Tim Wallace Walz would would have have not not

25:09 had had anything anything to to come come back back with with with with that that,, because because he's he's actually actually citing citing some some data data statistics statistics,, because

25:13 because I I think think if if you're you're having having a a debate debate,, it's it's important important to to be be well-versed well-versed in in fact fact. And And Republicans Republicans

25:18 succeed succeed really really well well when when it it comes comes to to certain certain issues issues,, the the border border of of the the economy economy and and stuff stuff like like that that,,

25:23 but but when when it it comes comes to to climate climate and and energy energy,, I I think think a a lot lot of of them them right right is is kind kind of of stuck stuck on on stupid stupid when

25:28 when it it comes comes to to getting getting the the facts facts out out there there.. And And the the left left is is too too., they They exaggerate exaggerate everything everything,, they they

25:34 lie lie about about things things.. But But I I wish wish the the right right needs needs to to have be better better informed, on be this issue to better informed on this issue to fight fight back

25:40 back against against that that propaganda propaganda.. And And I'd I'd like to see see that in that in a a few few few debates debates.. I'd I'd like like the the Trump Trump campaign campaign to

25:46 to reach reach out out to to somebody somebody and and say say,, Hey hey, get out of here., get this this scientist scientist get, get this this person person on on there there and and really

25:51 really just just drill drill home home the the data data on on what what that that climate climate is is actually actually. telling what us, what the the data data is is actually actually selling

25:56 selling us us.. 'Cause Because I I think think you you and and I I talked talked about about this this last last time time, because 'cause I I firmly firmly believe believe it it,, it it really

26:02 really, really really sucks sucks that that we we can't can't have have a a thoughtful thoughtful conversation conversation about about this this and and talk talk about about actual actual

26:09 trade-offs trade-offs, 'cause because we're we're talking talking about about trillions trillions of of trillions trillions of of dollars dollars.. Unfortunately And unfortunately,, when when

26:14 energy energy prices prices are are high high,, people people die die.. I mean, and it It is is morally morally repugnant repugnant for for me me,, the the next next billion billion people

26:23 people that that are are gonna going to be be on on this this planet planet in in Southeast Southeast Asia Asia and and Africa Africa, to to look look at at those those folks folks and and be be

26:29 Marie Marie Antoinette Antoinette, let, let them them eat eat cake cake., They they can can

26:34 do do without without energy energy because because we we don't don't want want climate climate change change.. I mean We, we need need to to be be way way more more thoughtful thoughtful about

26:39 about this this, 'cause because we we ignore ignore this this at at our our own own peril peril,, but but it's it's certainly certainly not not moving moving at at the the pace pace that that Al Al

26:45 Gore Gore and and Greta Greta Thunberg Thorneburg are saying. are saying. Yeah,

26:52 Yeah absolutely, absolutely. And. I think that the The conversation conversation needs needs to to really really touch touch on on,, you you know know,, even even if if we we suppose suppose

27:00 that that climate climate change change is is this this existential existential threat threat,, we we should should,, or or even even if if it it is is or or isn't isn't,, we we should should be

27:06 be focused focused on either on either way way,, we we are are becoming becoming more more susceptible susceptible,, more more vulnerable vulnerable to to extreme extreme weather weather events

27:12 events,, maybe maybe not not in in terms terms of of death death toll toll because because obviously obviously we we have have a a warning warning coordination coordination,, but but we we are are

27:17 seeing seeing increased increased losses losses,, economic economic losses losses,, financial financial,, you know, coastal coastal assets assets that that are are getting getting wiped wiped

27:23 out out by by storm storm surges surges,, you know year, year after after year year,, storm storm surges surges that that always always happen happen,, but but there there's is just just more

27:28 more stuff stuff to to destroy destroy now now than than there there was was a a century century ago ago,, even even 40 40 years years ago ago,, there there was was not not as as much much stuff

27:32 stuff as as much much along along our our coastlines coastlines or or in in the the flood flood plains plains.. We We need need to to have have more more of of a a resilient resilient infrastructure

27:37 infrastructure,, better better zoning zoning,, you you know know,, and and being being able able to to have have that that in in order order to to prevent prevent losses losses from from

27:45 occurring occurring, so, so we're we are not not focusing focusing much much on on rebuilding rebuilding, we are more focused on one for preventing venting them them in in the the first first place

27:50 place. And and this this is is independent independent of of climate climate change change.. The The climate climate could could remain remain perfectly perfectly stable stable through through time

27:55 time,, but but if if we we can decrease increase our our presence presence of of our of our our buildings buildings,, our our homes homes,, that that our our businesses businesses, in in

28:02 tourist tourist traps traps,, we we put put them them all all in in this this coastal coastal areas areas, where where there's there's gonna going to be be hurricanes hurricanes inevitably

28:06 inevitably, every every year year,, you're you're gonna going to increase increase the the exposure exposure and and the the damage damage potential potential,, you're you're going gonna to

28:12 increase increase your your risk risk.. So So that turns a natural hazard that that turns a natural hazard that you're you're always always facing facing into into a a natural natural disaster

28:18 disaster, where where there's there's catastrophic catastrophic damage and damage and potentially potentially a significant loss a significant of loss of light light.. And And if if we we stop stop

28:25 building building stuff stuff near near the the coast coast so so much much, and and we we put put stricter circular regulations regulations on on that that,, especially especially in in upper

28:30 upper building building codes codes,, Florida Florida has has done done a a really really great great job job with with that that,. but But other other states states,, Texas Texas and and

28:36 Louisiana Louisiana, Mississippi, Mississippi,, Carolina Carolina,, they're they're kind kind of of far far behind behind Florida Florida in and that that regard regard on on the the building on

28:41 the dotty codes codes and and stuff stuff.. And And Hurricane Hurricane Harvey Harvey is is a a great great example example, you. know, We're we're building building on on the the flood flood

28:47 plains plains there there in in Houston Houston. call called a significant significant damage damage and and we we need need to to be be better better about about. where where we we were were

28:54 playing putting, and in cities cities in in general general are are just just putting putting concrete concrete over over grassland grassland., The the prairie prairie grass grasses is the and

28:60 stuff stuff they they can can use use., they They can't can't absorb absorb all all of of the the water water.. So So it's it's forced forced to to,, you you can't channel it away because it has,

29:07 through concrete. We see this in New York City just during an afternoon thunderstorm, DC and New York City flood all the time because of, because of aging drainage systems, they're clogged, and

29:07 these cities were not designed to handle the weather in that regard. We see flooding, especially in New York City, we see terrible flooding all the time because we're not having proper urban

29:07 planning. Yeah, and ultimately through our insurance system, that's passed on to everybody. So it's, we can't can't, channel it away 'cause it has, you can't sink through concrete. We see this

29:11 in New York City, just during an afternoon thunderstorm, DC and New York City flood all the time because of, because of aging drainage systems, they're clogged, and these cities we're not

29:23 designed to handle the weather in that regard. We see flooding, especially in New York City, we see terrible flooding all the time because we're not having proper urban planning. Yeah, and

29:33 ultimately through our insurance system, that's passed on to everybody, you

29:39 know? So it's,

29:45 we can't, we we don't don't just just say say,, well well,, that's that's a a Florida Florida problem problem or or New New York York. city City problem problem.. No No,, ultimately

29:49 ultimately my my insurance insurance rights rates are are going going up, up as well as everybody else's. And I think I think that's going to be one of the big, it's starting to get a little bit of

29:59 buzz now. But that's one of the big lurking giants we have is insurance rates are through the roof these days on all fronts. My car insurance was up 30.

30:11 Now granted, I got speeding tickets like there's a lot more. But, you know, it's,

30:21 it's, yeah, it's, it's going to be a thing. Well, what else do we need to know about kind of the hurricane in terms of what happened and or what didn't happen?

30:35 Well, the hurricane itself, there, there, one thing that they said that the thing Doro doll said on the debate, the vice president of debate, she says that climate change is making these storms

30:45 larger. And they obviously what else did what else did she say she said larger stronger and deadlier and First of all, there's no evidence whatsoever that hurricanes are becoming larger in diameter

30:59 There's I don't recall learning in tropical my tropical meteorology course where Carbon dioxide was a factor in hurricane diameter or radius size. I don't recall learning I don't recall my professor

31:11 going ever that I'll recall reading that and my tropical meteorology textbook that's over on my shelf The carbon dioxide does not drive hurricane size Some hurricanes are very small some of them are

31:21 very big Even if even if they're really intense and they're really small They're not going to cause as much damage as it may be a weaker storm that has larger diameter because of In the case of a much

31:30 more. I mean look at Halley. It was a very large storm You know winds were the wind field stretched out 300 miles 375 miles out from its center in all directions. So You know the larger the storm

31:45 get a little bit of wind, you're going to have a big storm surge with that. And especially the shape of the coastline, the ocean shelf and the shape of a day, for example, is in how about water

31:56 it's pushed in. It's going to determine how bad a storm surge is.

32:02 You know, Tampa had a pretty large storm surge of that. Thankfully, it wasn't as bad as Ian back in 2022, Hurricane Charlie back in 2004, or the hurricane in 1848. If that occurred today, that

32:14 would have been probably immersed in Hurricane Ian.

32:17 So

32:19 there's no there's no conclusion on the size of a hurricane in relation to a warming climate. I mean, Noah, Noah has talked about this. They have a hurricane and climate change fact sheet that

32:31 they just came out with recently. They said that there's no while hurricane size and intensity and stuff and location of formation might change. In the future, there's no consensus in the future.

32:43 model projections that they have, not sent out all 2015, another study published in AMS. They said that there's no global scale trend in the projection of hurricane size, if they're radius or

32:55 diameter.

32:57 And the other thing that she says, hurricane becomes stronger, obviously that's not true, we already looked at that. And then we looked at, she said that hurricanes are becoming deadlier. And

33:06 while they're becoming costlier, which is driving up insurance, you know, premiums and deductibles, and forcing some insurance companies to cancel plans and move out of those iris gay areas,

33:23 hurricanes are not becoming deadlier, in fact the deaths have decreased by more than 75 because of avoiding coordination. I mean, the Galveston hurricane in 1900, to 12, 000 people, that's the

33:33 estimate in the upper lower bounds. And that was the earliest disaster, not the disaster in the US. history And obviously, we don't see ages 12, 000.

33:43 people getting tilled by hurricanes anymore, even though we've had hurricanes since Galveston that have been more intense at landfall because we have better warning coordination. So they're not

33:52 becoming deadlier. They're having more destructive, but that's not because of climate change. And the insurance thing is interesting because a lot of times you'll see people, a lot of climate

34:04 change activists, a lot of people on the left, low claim that low insurance rates are rising because of climate change. Insurance rates are rising, yes And it's because of, again, what we've

34:14 already talked about, increased exposure. A solar farm, for example, was destroyed by a hailstorm and down near Houston, Texas, back in March, earlier this year. Down in Damon, kind of down

34:26 by my home down a Richmond, yep. Yeah, the hailstorm was destroyed, caused millions of dollars in damage. I was, in sure, I would not want to underwrite a policy to cover that because of a

34:39 hailstorm So, it's not. climate change is just that what you're building is getting destroyed. It's just more of that. I don't want to ensure things that have a high price. It's an investment

34:50 from the insurance company to cover those expenses. And everything has a microchip embedded in it now. I mean, it used to be you got a fender bender in your car and they just pounded out the metal

35:03 of your car, pounded it out, fixed it, made it look nice. Now there's a chip embedded in it that

35:09 opens and closes your door and it's5, 000. So things are

35:14 just more complex. Exactly. And that's what that's never that's a great that's a great point that you had there, talking. Actually, I should probably put that in a tweet at some point and I'll

35:27 tag it because you give it the inspiration.

35:30 But yeah, that's a great point. And you know, there's

35:35 just more technology involved. The stuff costs money. And how many insurance companies? I don't want to invest in

35:42 paying the repair costs for that. And also you have inflation because of that. It drives up the cost and repairs. It's just a complex issue. And people that blame climate change for that or

35:54 regurgitating insurance industry propaganda is an excuse to raise rates and stuff. Obviously, the insurance companies have to remain profitable and there's increased risk But some of them probably

36:11 exaggerate climate risk a little bit to increase and maximize profits, maximize their returns, as any company will try to maximize profits. But it's always funny listening to climate alarmists and

36:22 people in the insurance industry or people on the left defend the insurance industry as not having any little bit of corruption in that regard. But then we'll turn around and say that oil companies

36:32 are corrupt because they wanna maximize their profits. You can't have it both ways Both, there is some greed in both

36:40 instances, Prices are also set by other other factors, other economic factors. It's not just money, it's just not greed. And they didn't just become greedy in

36:52 2021. I would say they wanna make money, but there's a lot of other things that go into determining the price of these things. And take the Milton Friedman line of, why are these human beings only

37:03 greedy if they work for an oil company? Aren't the same human beings that work for the government? Aren't they greedy? You know, isn't it greedy? Big pharma. Yeah, big pharma. I mean, just

37:14 tick on down the list of where people, people are quote unquote greedy. So yeah. Yeah, it's always funny listening to that. I always love how we conclude control oil and gas prices. And I'm like,

37:28 man, if we really could, we were so shitty that one day oil price went negative. Why didn't we collude that day? Yeah, exactly I might still have a job if that was the case No. Well, Chris,

37:42 you were cool to come back on. Let me ask you all these questions just 'cause it's been wild sort of watching the news and trying to understand all this stuff. And I love the work you're doing on X.

37:56 It's good stuff, fight in the good fight. Yeah, it's a lot of fun. It's fun to add the humor and just go after these people that come after me. If you don't come after me, you aren't rude to me.

38:08 I'm not gonna be rude to you Or I'm not gonna have fun with it. If you actually ask me a serious question, I'm happy to answer it. But if you're gonna be a little zero Nancy and then you're gonna

38:20 come after me and call me names, I'm gonna have a little bit of fun with you. And it's fun, racially. Appreciating people with facts. But at the same time,

38:30 while I'm having fun, I love to educate people about the data. And here's the thing, people always criticize my haters and my critics always say, well, Chris, you're, you're not an expert.

38:40 You're not a meteorologist yet. I get my degree in May. But I've never claimed that I'm an expert in meteorology. I mean, I have expertise and it cuts my field of study, but I didn't claim that

38:51 I'm the world's top expert. I've never claimed that I know everything. I don't want people to even believe what I'm telling them. I want them to go veriflacer themselves. What matters to me, what

39:00 speaks to me is the data. My opinion doesn't matter, but what matters is the data because that's how scientific evidence is, that's how scientific evidence becomes scientific fact And because how

39:11 the fact is established is through actual evidence in data, not opinions. And so I don't really try to give my opinion on things. I try to present a fact to what the data shows in an unbiased

39:24 manner to educate people. Yeah. Because it doesn't matter who is, it doesn't matter

39:31 whether you're a plumber, if what you're saying is factual, that's all that matters. It's the data, it's not the person. And the climate alarmist in particular, they always attacked the person,

39:41 not the argument. And that's my big problem with the other side is that when they can't defend their position, they attack the person. Yeah, I mean, I could go the rest of my life without hearing

39:51 the experts say, or misinformation or whatever. It's like, come on, the way you combat this is more talking, you know? The biggest sources of misinformation are the people that are worried about

40:08 this friend have this misinformation, the mainstream media, their government, and

40:15 they're not truthful. You know, and also government, that's always fun is because the climate alarmist will come at me and they say, well, do you know more than the scientists at NASA and NOAA?

40:26 Well, first of all, I know a lot of scientists at NOAA who have anonymous accounts on Twitter who follow me and they love my stuff. NOAA has a lot of fantastic employees. I love what they do.

40:35 They actually know in general,

40:39 We disagree, I disagree with some of their assessment of things. They do do it in unbiased manner. They're very good, and I really enjoy the work that they put out. I used to use a lot of it to

40:49 support my position. But I've never said I know more than the scientists that know, but again, it comes down to the evidence. What's the data show? And also, the other point is, is that, you

41:01 know, these people, they're like, they always appeal to authority. They have no, if you had actually had an argument against what I was saying, then you would provide data for that, not just

41:10 appeal to credentials, or, you know, to decide, you know, to prop your argument up. If that's what you do, it's not evidence. And the experts aren't always right. We look what we saw with

41:22 COVID. That was a monstrosity. The experts can and sometimes are wrong. And you should never just trust government scientists, you know, FALTY or

41:34 people that, you know, the CDC, what any scientific agency says, because as somebody, I have family and friends who are government scientists, when they work for different, they're not meeting

41:48 all them meteorologists, but some of them are, some of them work in other areas as other things. And they work together on teams to come up with posters and fact sheets or social media posts or

42:03 reports for their organization, their government agency, but in order they cannot, they are told what they can and cannot say about specific scientific issues, climate change being one of them.

42:14 Like you can't, you have to message it this way. You have to save these words and these statistics. You can't talk about this, you can't talk about that. And it goes through a chain of command

42:25 through several supervisors overlook what you are writing on a before you can bet it get it published on to a social media page or a website.

42:36 or peer review I guess in this case is important. In the case of the government, whoever is in charge gets the final say. They

42:45 get to tell whoever else. Okay, yeah, you're not allowed to talk about this. You can't say that heat waves in the United States have decreased since the 1900, but you can say that heat waves have

42:56 increased since 1960 'cause we don't want to look at that. That's kind of how this stuff works. And a lot of people will call you conspiracy theorists but

43:04 scientists are under the thumb, they're under the government especially, they're under the thumb of their supervisors. A lot of them that run these big agencies, they're, they are appointed

43:14 political appointees and they have biases of their own because they want to use science to dog along the policy card. Yeah, and I love the point you make time and time again on your Twitter feed

43:28 about maintaining your funding If I decide to say, Hey, here's what my findings are. and it goes against the narrative of the people you were just talking about. Well, and behold, I lose my

43:41 funding, you know? And so it's always, it always gets me that, you know, well, the oil and gas industry funded that research or tobacco funded that research, but shouldn't you have the same

43:53 disdain for the government funding the research? Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's always fun. I made it out of gas. I made it climate better being go-card Right. Yeah, it's like, you'd use the

44:07 talking points. Exxon new, like they also, Exxon new about the data's of global warming and the evidence and that's always their talking point or 97 of experts agree, or all scientists agree or,

44:19 you know, you're a POS, that's something called be a POS. the other day. Like, that's good. That's like, I'm gonna care.

44:25 The sciences settled. The sciences settled. I didn't put that on there. No, I had to, maybe I had to change one hour. You watch too much Fox News, or you're a maggot. like I'm not. I don't

44:38 worship Trump. He wasn't even my first choice for the primary. I'd rather have somebody that's younger or articulate than him on the ballot right now, but

44:51 you can't get what you want, right? So I'm not a magical thing. I have just so many problems with them as I do the far left on various issues. But your point about funding is that yeah, it's

45:02 actually something it's very a very good point. And I've made it several times is that if you're going to criticize scientists who are funded for by big work. Now, funding is that big oil companies

45:10 don't really fund climate skeptics anymore.

45:14 You don't really see that that kind of stuff kind of stopped almost 20 years ago, in most cases, because companies like Shell, like Exxon, like BP, I can go on

45:24 YouTube and look up a video for something. And there's always going to be an Exxon ad that we're going to build a sustainable future. And they're all invested in the renewable energy projects.

45:31 They're investing in wind, investing in solar, because. They realize that they are energy companies and that they get tax breaks and stuff because they get on the good side of the greens and the

45:44 left and so they get, it benefits them. It hurts the smaller oil companies because they're not investing in their renewables. Green energy is actually helping the oil companies, it's not hurting

45:58 them. It's the smaller companies, the oil companies that are hurting from this green energy stuff, getting them out of business. And because of that, because it's a bad look for oil companies to

46:12 find climate research, they no longer do it, at least not at the scale that they have in the past. They have in the past. There are scientists that, but again, I don't really care who's getting

46:22 funded by who, as long as the research is good. But if you want to play that game, then I want to tell you, well, your government funded research, I'm going to approach that, let's get this

46:30 isn't because, you know, who's What are the motives behind a government wanting to do this? And the whole thing with, let me find, I've actually bookmarked a tweet where I talked about this, or

46:41 I posted about it. You know, people will say that scientists aren't for profit. So like academics, universities are our research scientists. Scientists are for profit. They want to have a career

46:52 where they're able to make money and obviously support their families as anybody else. So they need to make money. And their primary way of doing that is through research grants And scientists,

47:04 their careers, whether they're an academia or the federal government, they are bankrolled by tax payer or by government, or just a taxpayer-funded research grant, usually if you usually apportion

47:16 money that's apportioned, taxpayer money has apportioned and put through the National Science Foundation as grants. And they also put a lot of it into research and development programs. I mean,

47:27 the Biden administration actually appropriate it's 109.

47:33 7 billion in research and development programs this year, and that costs each US. taxpayer about800, and the National Science Foundation is receiving93 billion of that RD money, and a large talk

47:47 of that is going to be used to fund various scientific research endeavors. When funding agents, like at the National Science Foundation or whoever insurance companies that fund research or whatever,

47:59 when these funding agents announced an opportunity for a research grant that you can apply for, they will state in the announcement something along the lines of, and let's just do an example. I did

48:09 this on Twitter spaces last night, you know, let's invent, what we want, we want a scientist to investigate the impacts of even calls climate change on wildfire risk in Mediterranean California.

48:22 So that's the announcement of opportunity. That's what they want,

48:28 they want some by some scientists to apply for that research and

48:32 How does climate change impacting wildfire activity in Mediterranean California? And how will carbon dioxide emissions reducing them to net zero by say 2050? How is that going to influence fire or

48:45 risk in the future? How is that going to reduce fire risk? So these research grants, they have very specific set of guidelines that applicants must adhere to. To apply, a scientist has to submit

48:58 his or her research proposal and that includes outlining your research goals, so basically adhering to their requirements. You also have to discuss the methods that you're going to probably use to

49:13 investigate the problem outlined in the research grant. You have to specify a budget. How much money are you looking to spend, or how much money are you wanting so that you can spend conducting

49:22 this research for travel or for equipment or whatnot, technology but you also need to discuss in your proposal

49:32 or application to get the grant, how is my research potentially gonna be beneficial to the scientific community and an overall contribution to the body of knowledge? So in the example that I just

49:45 discussed about wildfire risk and climate change, if you submit a proposal and you say, well, I don't really think even cause climate change as the primary factor for increase to acquire risk in

49:53 California in recent decades, and you think it rather the risk could be reduced significantly through better forest management, practices such as prescribed burning, mechanical thinning,

50:06 or they need placing power lines

50:09 on your ground, so they don't topple over during high wind

50:14 events, that's just when they get to Santa Ana downslope in wins, or maybe having strictrazony goods to reduce fire risk. If you submit that in your proposal, you wanna focus on those issues,

50:24 about how, again, forest management and the placement of power lines

50:29 zoning regulations, how you, how you want to focus on that versus CO2 emissions, you put that in your proposal and you want to investigate that, well, you're probably not going to get funded.

50:37 The point was saying, nah, nah, that's not what we're looking for. You're not getting their research screen. But even if you do happen to get the grant, it's unlikely that that paper will pass

50:46 through peer review because journals like Nature, Science Magazine, they have very specific, you know, they have a, they, the journal editors have a specific story in mind that they kind of want

50:58 papers to adhere to. Climate research now largely focuses on

51:04 climate change impacts and why this is a bad thing versus, you know, climate dynamics, understanding what's really going on. And

51:14 now if you, on the contrary, if you adhere to the guidelines and you that are laid out by the funding agency, you will most likely be funded and published in that journal. If you say, well, yeah,

51:24 I think carbon dioxide emissions from our burning of fossil fuels is increasing fire risk in If we produce,

51:32 if it's just a net zero by 2050, well, we'll have reduced fire. If you say that, I get funded. That's how it works.

51:41 No, that's exactly right. I always say this whenever people talk about the experts and all

51:51 that, the greatest scientists, maybe the greatest scientists who ever lived, but certainly the greatest scientist

51:56 of the 20th century, that would have been your defense. My expert's a postal clerk, Albert Einstein, right? And he would have been ridiculed just on the basis of that and dude changed the world.

52:10 So yeah, it doesn't matter the source. So create something

52:18 where

52:20 you can forecast, predict, and if it comes true each time, yes, we've proved something. scientific method has served us well. It's too bad we still don't use it. Yeah, scientific method has

52:34 become the scientific worshipers method. That's what it is. Exactly. It's a similar reason. Start with a pre-determined conclusion and you work backwards to try and find data to fit that narrative.

52:44 Exactly. Well, Chris, you were cool to come back on. I appreciate it. Standing invite, standing invite. We gotta get you down to Houston at some point. Well, I might be down there in January

52:56 We're gonna conference in New Orleans early in January, early mid-January, and we've been, somebody's might take a day trip to Texas, so.

53:07 We're happy to host, man. Thanks again, dude.